Bitcoin Futures: Ahead of the Curve
By Gabor Gurbacs, Director, Digital Assets Strategy, VanEck
Is there an overall positive view about bitcoin among investors for the future?
Recent bitcoin futures contract announcements from CBOE, CME, and Nasdaq have generated tremendous interest in digital assets.
Using information from existing digital asset derivative trading platforms, MVIS Research has constructed an approximate curve based on non-U.S. bitcoin futures trading on these exchanges. These are real trading platforms revealing real volume.
Estimated Bitcoin USD Futures Curve
Data as of 12/8/2017
Source: MVIS. Data as of December 8, 2017 (synthesized data from BitMEX, OKCoin, CryptoFacilities, and BTCC which represents non-U.S. listed bitcoin futures trading on these exchanges).
The curve reflects modest investor optimism in the short term (due to a possibly high level of volatility around the launch of U.S.-listed bitcoin futures contracts) and an increasingly positive view on bitcoin-USD rates in the medium and long term.
In the distant future (>3months) the curve may reflect a belief that the long-term true value of bitcoin will be at a higher level than today, possibly due to increased institutional participation and the maturation of digital assets as a potential asset class.
About the Author:
Gabor Gurbacs is the Director of Digital Asset Strategy, and former member of the ETF product management team, at VanEck. Mr. Gurbacs has extensive digital asset trading and market structure experience on global digital asset trading platforms and he is well known in the digital asset community. Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Gurbacs was a George Soros Scholar, Edgar Bronfman Fellow, serial entrepreneur, and holder of several new economy finance research positions at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Harvard, and Williams College. Mr. Gurbacs earned a BA from Williams College, triple majoring in Mathematics, German, and Sociology.
The article above is an opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of MV Index Solutions or its affiliates.